There are 5 orders of innovation from individual components at order 1, to systems at 2, services at 3 to disruption of industry at order 5. Knowing this provides expectation of capital and time to market with new innovations.
What is FMG ulitimate goal? To change his low cost iron ore exports to China and turn it into green steel manufactured in Australia and exported globally? The company has been busy setting up deals and purchasing technology.
We pay over $11 billion a year for fossi fuel subsidies for direct support. That does not include the indirect subsidies. As well there are billions of dollars needed to remediate fossil fuel coal and gas mines. Who pays? Consumers
Electric trucks have been slowly entering the market from all the major manufacturers, and businesses are catching onto the savings and applications. Transition will be steady as the capital to change from conventional to electric will be intensive.
Tesla has established an insurance business, and the value of insurance could be 5 times more than just selling the car by itself. The margin from the insurance business could be bigger than the revenue from full self driving software, face lower barriers to adoption and reduce costs to customers.
Coal mines continue to be constructed but face becoming stranded assets with the change to RW. But coal mines are half of the worlds mines and less than 17% of the revenue. Will other EV minerals replace them?
The Angry Clean Energy Guy talks about corporate evil: comapanies knowingly doing harm. Exxon, BP moved responsibility from their fossil fuel CO2 emissions and pushed “personal carbon footprint”. He outlines Adarni as a worst case example.
Over 37 companies have announced or are building European battery gigafactories. The largest is Tesla at Berlin due for production in early 2021, but others are focused on supplying the European manufacturers.
EV production in China is booming with multiple “Gigafactories”, and the battery market is racing to keep up with demand and supply. China will get to 20% of EV new car sales by the end of 2021 4 years ahead of 2025. Six battery companies provide 47% of the global demand for batteres.
It takes 2 years to build a battery gigafactory. But it takes 7 or more years to develop a mine. While there is plenty of lithium on the planet, it isn’t being extracted and refined quickly enough to keep up with the rapidly growing demand for batteries.
Nuclear SMR Reactors are small and modular and it is proposed they overcome 2 of the conventional nuclear issues, cost and refuelling. In reality, they are still a decade or more away from commericalisation and the value is yet to be confirmed.
Over 200 Gigafactories have been constructed or in construction or announced. There are in many countries around the world and are needed to produce the 80 million cars each year and the GW of energy Grid Storage.
Graphite is a key component in batteries and is the anode in most commercial batteries today. Sourced from fossil fuels, companies are seeking new carbon zero supply and looking to improve performance and reduce costs.
Lithium for batteries is in short supply and getting worse as batteries demand will increase by 30 times over the next decade. Mining supply is costly and slow. What other elements are in short supply.
The conclusion is clear: Nuclear power not a sensible option. It fails on multiple front – technology, economic and political, yet the industry continues to push for nuclear as a viable option for decarbonisation in the next 20 years.
The value to Australia for coal exports is less than the cost to import petrol and diesel. Australia should transition to EVs as fast as possible to improve the balance of payment and reduce carbon emissions and save consumers money.
Simple napkin maths says that Tesla makes robotaxis economic. In fact the numbers are so high they are just not believable? So what is stopping this? Politics? Technology. The only thing seems to be timing. Will it be this year? 2024?
5G is misunderstood and the conspiracy believers are out in full force. Here I try to make this simple so it can be understood. In undertanding some principles you can then decide which part you don’t like or things that are exciting.
How do you get the right website for your business? Start planning. Start with who is going to visit your site, and what you want or how do you want your visitors to respond. This simple 8 point process helps smooth the design, construction and deployment of your business.
10 things to make your life more productive.
Avoid meetings without an agenda
Never take a call from someone you don’t know.
Permanently turn off your voice mail
Sort your email with an app.
Disable email and texting when you need to focus
Give social butterflies short shift
Take a walk.
Make your decisions more quickly.
Disconnect for 12 hours each day.
Scroll through the articles, or the full list is in the footer. Down there ↓↓
Why change discussion? Because change management relies on four core principles and these are :
Change is happening rapidly. Climate change. Renewable energy. Transportation. This period of human existence is one of the great revolutions of the last 20,000 years, and the changes will be as or more profound as previous revolutions:
First Industrial Revolution 1765
Second Industrial Revolution 1870.
Third Industrial Revolution 1969.
This industrial revolution 4 will be as profound as previous ones. Over the 250 years of the first revolution, and 135 years of electricity, the advent of free energy will liberate the 30% of the global people who have energy poverty.
Commercialising Innovative Technologies
About 20 years ago, an astute Canadian told me there are 3 reasons people change.
They make money
They lose money
It is the law
The strongest change is when there are 2 factors in play. So change can be sudden. Whenever something is 1/10th of the cost, change will happen. Adoption is often 10 years to get to 1% of the market. Then within a decade, it can hold 80% of the market. Often it is not a 1 to 1 substitution.
Check out the various recent blogs. I try to view these subjects from 3 perspectives.
Technology. Does it work? We know that R&D and scaling of solution will drive up the tech, and decrease costs
Economics. Are the compelling financial or economic drivers for change? Will these change with R&D or scaling?
Politics. What are the institutional barriers or the individuals belief systems?
Innovation is never a straight line.
Challenges to Transition
The International Energey Agency says the data shows a looming mismatch between the world’s strengthened climate ambitions and the availability of critical minerals that are essential to realising those ambitions. This in the energy market is also true to other aspects of change over the next 10 years.