Agreeing to Tesla 2024 predictions depends on knowledge and interest. Is the person making the call financial, i.e. a bull or a bear? Is the person interested in reducing burning oil for transportation? Does the person even know Musk or Tesla outside of the main stream media. The Musk range of companies is sometimes conjoined, even though are separate entities or businesses. The company is executing Master Plan 3. (Details of MP3 here)
Sales of Tesla Autos 2024
There has been no specific guidance on vehicles in 2024. Automotive will continue to grow. The Tesla Master Plan says they will produce 20m cars by 2030, yet many do not the company is capable of that number or how they could do it. That is twice what Toyota produced a few years ago at peak production. In 2015, Elon Musk said the company could grow 50% per year and produce 500,000 by 2020. Tesla achieved that number.
In 2020, Elon Musk reiterated they could anticipate a growth of 50% year on year over a number of years. He was not specific how many years and he qualified that in some years they would not achieve this rate. Their new product, Cybertruck, has over 2.1 million reservations and new orders are increasing at over 10,000 per month. The Model Y is the most bought car in 2023 (more than the Toyota Corolla which held the record for over 10 years).
Some say 2024 will be a year of building supply lines and ramping factories to support that growth, but they have the factories, they have the technology.
Tesla-Specific Business Impacts
- Energy business – selling batteries to households and grid providers has better margins and to reach their stated Masterplan will need to have a new factory every year. The model is proven and demand from customers exceeds supply for the next 3 years.
- Robotics. Tesla with Optimus will be bigger than the auto business according to Musk – but how fast can that grow.
- AI is core to FSD, and autonomous driving, and Tesla has the biggest data source of real world data. Can their computing capabilities generate revenue, and when? They have released a LLM AI model on Twitter called Grok. There may be benefits in learning between companies.
- Space X is a separate company and is now profitable with their +2m Starlink subscribers. Will Tesla shareholders benefit? No.
- Twitter / X is a Musk company. Will X create opportunities for Tesla or was the acquisition and involvement by Musk deleterious to Tesla. It doesn’t appear so.
- Neurolink is a Musk company – no impact on Tesla. Yet.
- Boring Company is a Musk company and adds zero value to Telsa.
Electric Vehicles Ramp
James Stephenson on X has this visualisation of Tesla from 2008 to 2023.
Tesla Predictions for 2024 Specific Events
The following table is taken from an interview with Larry Goldberg.
| Larry Goldberg @teslalarry | Authors | Gary Black (X.com) |
|---|---|---|
| New factories India China Megapack by Q3Mexico building 60% | Mexico 40% done New battery factories in India, Indonesia and Italy | |
| Factory Expansion Nevada – semis + batteriesBerlin – more auto, batteriesShanghai – more cars | China Auto expands to 1.1mNevada expandsBerlin expandsTexas Y increases to 500,000 pa | |
| PR department is active. | minor | Adds value |
| 4680 batteries 5 lines extraBatteries into Model Y | 4680 increases to have model 3 and Y in the USA to meet the IRA rebate | |
| Optimus into production | 50,000 robots made | |
| R&D costs expensed. Change to 5 yr depreciation for capital Increase $5 to $9 billion | Increase R&D | |
| China margins under pressure | No change | No change |
| 100k cybertrucks sold | 120,000 sold | Creates halo effect |
| Dojo fully commissioned | Dojo expanded | |
| Announced $25k from Texas in Q4/2024 | Launch Q3 for exclusive Uber use with 5,000 deliveries | Announced in 2024 for delivery in 2025 |
| New Model Y in China | no | |
| Tesla Semi into low volume commercial deliveries | Commercial deliveries | |
| 2.4m sales (Berlin, Texas ramps, CT=0.1m, China 1.1m) | 30% up on 2023 to be 2.4m | |
| New Gigafactory Announced to enable 20m by 2030. | No new factory announced | Suggests maximum production 8m by 2030 |
| Share buyback no | Issue bonds for $40b, share buyback | Share buyback $10B |
| FSD increasingly adopted | Approval for Level 4 in USA and in other countries | License FSD |
| Share price – little change | – | $300 price target |
General Market Generalizations
Predicting Tesla’s 2024 business activities is fraught with uncertainties, but here’s a summary of some key aspects to watch according to general information.:
Expansion and Production:
- Cybertruck ramp-up. The Cybertruck production will increase over 2024 through 2025, with analysts citing potential challenges. Some question its success influencing overall sales and brand perception.
- Increased competition: Tesla faces rising competition from traditional automakers and startups in the EV market, potentially impacting its market share.
- Production goals: Achieving analyst predictions of 2.1 million vehicle deliveries in 2024 will require smooth scaling of existing models and potential new launches.
Financial Performance:
- Profitability. Even with revenue rising, many mainstream analysts predict a decline in earnings per share compared to 2023. The decline is due to decreased tax credits and potential margin reductions.
- Stock performance: With mixed views on profitability, Tesla’s stock may see volatility influenced by market conditions and company performance.
Other Key Activities:
- Energy storage and solar: Continued expansion in these sectors is likely, potentially bolstering Tesla’s overall clean energy ecosystem.
- Automation and technology: The development of autonomous driving technology and other in-car features will remain a focus area.
- Musk factor: Elon Musk’s public statements and actions can significantly impact investor sentiment and the company’s image.
2024 is a pivotal year for Tesla, with a mix of potential growth opportunities and challenges. Its ability to navigate increased competition, manage production complexities, and maintain financial performance will be crucial for its future success.
How Many Cars Can Tesla Make
Randy Kirk says Tesla could sell 3m vehicles in 2024 if Elon Musk wants to badly enough. Production in 2023 provided 1.8m. No additional factories are needed to exceed 3m in 2024.
| Factory | 2023 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|
| Fremont CA | 600,000 | 600,000 |
| Austin TX | 150,000 | 500,000 |
| Berlin Germany | 200,000 | 400,000 |
| Shanghai | 870,000 | 1,300,000 |
| Total | 1,820,00 | 2,800,000 |
Other EV Manufacturers
BYD sold 1.57 million electric cars and another 1.4 million internal combustion cars in 2023. BYD has a range of models, and like Tesla, rapidly increasing the percentage of BEV versus ICE cars.
References
- Analysts’ forecasts:
- FactSet consensus estimates for Tesla’s 2024 earnings and deliveries.
- Investor’s Business Daily article: “Tesla Stock: Tesla EV Business Faces ‘Challenges’ In 2024. That Might Not Stop TSLA.” (Source data here)
- CNBC video: “2024 will be a ‘golden year’ for Tesla, says Wedbush’s Dan Ives” (CNBC)
- News articles:
- Austin American-Statesman: “Tesla in 2024 will have ‘moving pieces’ from the Cybertruck to EV pricing”
- Tesla Stock 2024 Forecast: Will the Elon Musk-Run Company Break Out to New Highs? (Nasdaq)
- Industry reports:
- Tesla Marketing Strategy 2024: A Case Study by Simplilearn
YouTube Links
- Brighter with Herbert https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U0tzSPH-f8k
- The 2015 projection about future growth of “50% annual growth” was made by Elon Musk during the Tesla Motors, Inc. Third Quarter 2014 Financial Results Q&A Conference Call (Wednesday, November 05, 2014, 5:30 pm EST).
