bloombert EV projections wrong by 20 years

Many follow the Bloomberg Vehicle Outlook published annually under the supervision of Colin McKerracher of Bloomberg NEF. The 2024 outlook released in early 2024 shows sales of EVs are rapidly rising. Bloomberg 2023 prediction of 14 million new EV cars was very close to the 14.1m but other predictions were not. Charts from 2016 show that predictions the future rise in EV numbers.

Bloomberg gets some of next year predictions correct but fails on others. E.g. Bloomberg forecast battery prices would remain similar for 2023 compared with 2022 . (Vehicle Outlook 2022). Yet battery prices fell 23%.

Even as recently as 2021, the projection from 2016 was hopelessly outdated. With 7 million passenger EVs on the road, together with more than 500,000 e-buses, almost 400,000 electric delivery vans and trucks, and 184 million electric mopeds, scooters and motorcycles on the road globally oil demand was down 4.6% or about 1.5mbpd.

Vehicle Outlook Bloomberg

YearNew EV Sales (2023)New EV Sales (2030)New EV Sales (2040)Total EVs (2030)Total EVs (2040)Oil (2030)Oil (2040)Source
Prediction in Bloomberg Annual Vehicle Outlook projections from 2016 to 2024 for EVs sold, share of new cars and oil demand displacement in 2030 and 2040
Oil is oil isplacement in millions of barrels of oil per day (mbpd)

2024 Predictions

The 2024 estimate is over 15 million, rising from 10.5 million in 2022 to almost 27 million in 2026.

2017 Prediction

The prediction in 2017 was 5m in 2023 and 54% by 2040. More over, the prediction was that ICE cars would continue to be sold in large volumes until 2040.

Bloomberg Vehicle Outlook – 2017 prediction

2016 Prediction

In 2016 EVs would be a million or so, and not until 2040 would EVs account for 35%,

Additional notes:

  • The oil demand displacement figures are based on BloombergNEF’s own assumptions and calculations, which may not be universally agreed upon.

Bloomberg Vehicle Outlook Prediction Vs Professor Ray Wills

Predictions by others are closer to the reality. Prof Ray Wills of UWA and FSS (LinkedIn) made this projection in 2014. What did he know that Bloomberg did not?

Ray Wills EV transition

Sources and More Reading

  1. BloombergNEF’s 2016 Electric Vehicle Outlook report
  2. BloombergNEF’s 2017 Electric Vehicle Outlook report
  3. BloombergNEF’s 2018 Electric Vehicle Outlook report
  4. BloombergNEF’s 2019 Electric Vehicle Outlook report
  5. BloombergNEF’s 2020 Electric Vehicle Outlook report
  6. BloombergNEF’s 2021 Electric Vehicle Outlook report
  7. BloombergNEF’s 2022 Electric Vehicle Outlook report
  8. BloombergNEF’s 2023 Electric Vehicle Outlook report (Q3 update)
  9. BloombergNEF’s 2023 Electrified Transport Market Outlook (4Q)
  10. BloombergNEF’s 2023 Electrified Transport Market Outlook (4Q)
  11. Diouf, Boucar. (2024). The Electric Vehicle Transition. Environmental Science: Advances. 10.1039/D3VA00322A.
  12. Electric Vehicles to Accelerate to 54% of New Car Sales by 2040 2017