exponential battery growth is underway

Exponential battery growth is underway and RMI reports this in their 2023 report X-Change: Batteries: The Battery Domino Effect. The remarkable, exponential growth of battery sales is driven by a Wrights Law. This domino effect of battery technology adoption cascades from country to country and sector to sector. This battery domino effect will assist phase-out of over half of global fossil fuel demand by 2040. This is much faster than RMI forecast 6 months ago. Batteries will abate transport and power emissions. Batteries enable to over 60% toward a zero-carbon energy system.

Estimates for total batteries needed to decarbonise globally is between 250 and 300TWh. Tesla Masterplan v3 has a 250TW figure. This will primarily be for electrifying transport (400m battery electric cars, down from 1.44 billion ICE cars.)

Price Plummetting

Tony Seba’s 2014 book, Clean Disruption, was a prediction that by 2027 Li-ion batteries would reach $50/kWh. At the time, that was insane to the straight-liine thinking mainstream. In a CNEV article the China price for VDA-sized LFPcells was less than RMB 0.5/Wh ($US69.53/kWh]. Leapmotor’s vice president Cao Li recently said in an interview that the company’s procurement cost for LFP cells has dropped to RMB 0.4/Wh ($55.62/kWh) in a battery price war with CATL and BYD. Wright’s Law says for a doubling of units, prices halve. Tony Seba was wrong – 3 years too conservative!

Tony Seba battery costdown prediction 2014

Power batteries have gone from being in tight supply to being in oversupply in a year’s time, and prices are now gradually dropping towards RMB 0.3/Wh, says a report from SNE Research from Sth Korea. VDA is a size specification for square cells, with length, width and height of 148 mm, 26.5 mm and 91 mm, respectively. C refers to the charging multiplier of the battery, and 2C means that the battery can theoretically be fully charged in one-half hour.

Batteries Provide Aysnchronous Electricity

Batteries are currently going through a massive domino effect of adoption certain to phaseout 50% of global fossil fuel demand by 2040 at the latest. Because: economics. We are witnessing, live, the end of the age of oil (that’s why Big Oil hijacked the UN climate talks)

Assard Rassouk https://x.com/AssaadRazzouk/status/1735838120611131819?s=20

Scope of Exponential Battery Growth

It’s hard to conceptualize the sheer scale of what’s going on.

  • Annual commissions of new factories are 18 times those of just 5 years ago
  • Building 400 gigafactories
  • Capacity to make 9 TWh of batteries/ year by 2030
  • 1 kWh for every person on the planet
  • Sufficient mineral resources need to scale-up batteries
  • Reaching net zero will only take one quarter of today’s lithium, one-third of nickel and a quarter of known cobalt resources.
  • Higher battery energy densities = fewer minerals needed per battery
  • Battery-recycling is alleviating demand for new mining
  • New battery chemistries such as sodium-ion, iron, LFP cathodes, and silicon anodes diversifying demand for minerals
  • Total missions from RE for next 30 years = emissions for just 1 year of fossil fuels
RMI Exponential battery Growth history
RMI Exponential battery Growth forecast

From January to September 2023, the amount of energy held by batteries for electric vehicles (EV, PHEV, HEV) registered worldwide was approximately 624.4GWh, a 41.8% YoY growth. For 2024, over 1TWh was installed for EVs and grid storage.,

From SNE Research Sth Korean (Press Release)

Enough Minerals

Not Enough some say? More than enough

  • Copper 42x
  • Lithium 257 x
  • Cobalt 45x
  • Nickel 35x
  • Silver 22x
  • Manganese 75 x
  • Molybdenum 53
  • Silicon unlimited
  • Zinc 20x
  • Graphite 320 x
RMI Exponential battery Growth history

Decrease in Fossil Fuel Demand

Previously RMI had this projection for collapse by 2050. The rise in batteries has brought their projections forward by a decade.

fossil fuel demand will collapse
RMI Exponential battery Growth history

Why Will Battery Growth Be Exponential

Many do not realise that 50% of all energy used today is wasted. Wasted in mining. Wasted in processing, and wasted at end use. Petrol requires 30% of the energy of oil in the bedrock to be drilled, recovered, refined, and shipped around the world. Then is used for motion. These 2 Sankey diagrams show the inefficiencies in the current system. Batteries or stored energy are a substantial efficiency solution. Do more with less. For a more detailed analysis see this article.

More Reading

  1. X-Change: Batteries: The Battery Domino Effect 2023. Daan Walter, Kingsmill Bond, Sam Butler-Sloss, Laurens Speelman, Yuki Numata, Will Atkinson. RMI Institute. https://rmi.org/insight/x-change-batteries/
  2. Tesla Masterplan IR.tesla.com or Change Discussion Tesla Master Plans