BloombergNEF’s (BNEF) latest Long-Term Electric Vehicle Outlook flags that the passenger electric vehicle numbers increasing by 20% CAGR, i.e will grow rapidly in the next few years. The increase is from 6.6 million in 2021 to 21 million in 2025 (or about 25% of all new sales.) The total EV on the road will hit 77 million by 2025 (6% of the total vehicles on the road) and 229 million by 2030, up from 16 million at the end of 2021.
In context, about there are about 80 million new vehicles each year, and about 1.2 billion total vehicles. About 20% are pickup trucks in the USA and Australia, but generally, sedans and SUVs are the majority in the rest of the world. See Global Car Sales . Bloomberg reports that as of mid-2022, there are about 20 million passenger EVs on the road (including plug-in hybrids), representing 1.5% of the global fleet.
Boston Consulting Group (electric cars finding next gear report, Jun 2022) say global demand for battery-powered cars is racing ahead faster than expected. It has brought forward sales forecasts despite concerns over shortages of batteries and charging infrastructure. The updated forecast for battery electric vehicles (BEVs):
- In 2025, battery electric vehicles (BEVs) = 20% of global light vehicle sales (up from 11%)
- By 2028, over 50% of all sales will be electric (3 years earlier than previously predicted)
- by 2035, 59% more battery electric vehicles sold (up from 45%)
The Bloomberg report in full says that the window to net emissions is closing rapidly and governments need to take firm policy action.
Last internal combustion vehicle must be sold by 2038 to achieve net-zero global fleet by 2050; urgent policy action key, especially on heavy commercial vehiclesBloomberg Net-Zero Road Transport By 2050 Still Possible, As Electric Vehicles Set To Quintuple By 2025 | BloombergNEF (bnef.com)
Bloomberg Warns Heavy Commercial Segment is the Laggard
Electric Vehicle Numbers Increasing Rapidly Displaces Oil!
As EV uptake continues to grow, they are already displacing 1.5 million barrels of oil demand per day. Most of this is from electric two- and three-wheelers in Asia, but rising passenger EV sales push this to 2.5 million barrels per day by 2025. Some of this change has come from unlikely markets.
- China has 685,000 electric buses on the road and 195 million electric two-wheelers
- 17% of light commercial vehicles sales in South Korea were electric in 2021
- Almost 40% of India’s three-wheeler fleet is already electric
Peak Oil for Transport by 2027
Overall, oil demand from road transport is now set to peak by 2027, according to BNEF’s findings, as electrification spreads to all other areas of road transport beyond passenger cars. Sales of internal combustion engine vehicles already peaked in 2017 and BNEF expects the global fleet of ICE passenger vehicles to start to decline in 2024.
Autonomous Cars Will Replace 6 Cars
With the approval of Cruise Autonomous cars in San Francisco in June 2022, the regulatory hurdles are coming down. Autonomous cars will displace up to 6 normal cars – so the prediction by Bloomberg NEF needs to be tempered with this as they do not factor in the rise of AVs. Tesla has indicated that it will introduce a specialised AV within the next 3 years.
Europe – Exponential Growth of EVs
Cleantechnica show there are now 15 European countries that have 15% or more of new-car buyers buying plugin electric cars (full electric cars or plugin hybrids). There are 12 European countries that have 10% or more of new-car buyers buying full electric vehicles (BEVs). China also passed those milestones in 2021 (15% plugin vehicle share and 12% BEV share). Shanghai has over 50% just 2 years later. The data shows several countries have gone from ~2% of new car sales being fully electric to 10%+ being fully electric in just two years. It took Norway three to four years to make a similar climb. The question now is: does the growth level off a bit or does it keep spiking in these countries?