Many fail to see that vehicle to home (VTH) or vehicle to grid or V2G will disrupt electricity as we know it. V2G / V2H is a technology that allows electricity to flow from an electric vehicle (EV) back to the home or the grid. We are familiar with electricity flowing from the home, business or grid to an EV. This is the reverse. Use power from your vehicle for household demand, or send back into the grid for others to use. V2G is already coming and expected by mid 2022, although regulations are scrambling to catch up. This is a game changer for 5 reasons.
- The combined capacity of car batteries will exceed the existing capacity by 100 times from 2GW to 225GW
- Expect rooftop solar to go from 18GW to 100GW
- Every consumer becomes an energy producer
- Disruption to existing electricity generators will long and deep.
The Electricity Market in Australia
Australia has a connected energy grid and operates on the East Coast of Australia called the National Energy Market (or NEM). There is another grid in WA called SWIS, but the 2 systems are not connected.
- The total NEM capacity = 55GW
- This capacity comes from about 100 large generators.
- 24 coal powered power stations contribute 75% of energy currently but that is dropping rapidly.
- 57 gas fired power stations (over 40MW) with a total capacity of 9GW.
- Large scale solar = 6GW
- Wind = 8GW and contributes 10% of all energy generated
- The daily demand is about half of capacity, or 24GW/h. That changes down depending on demand, weekends, time of day.
- Rooftop solar is now 3 million households (out of 10.1m).
- Estimated capacity rooftop = 18GW. This is additional to the NEM nominal 55GW
- Rooftop solar is increasing by 3GW per year.
- Rooftop solar generates for about 6 hours.
- Large batteries installed = 0.5GW currently but expected to be 2GW by end 2022.
Vehicle to Grid Capacity
- Cars in Australia = 20.1m in 10.2 million households (See Global car sales)
- New vehicle sales are about 800,000 cars and 200,000 pickups. EV cars and pickups are coming
- If there are 1m EV cars sold and each car has a 75kw battery then = 75GW storage. 30 times the existing storage.
- So think the change from Big Grid to “Freeing Energy” by Bill Nussey is going to be rocky to the existing players.
Scenario: Why V2G Will Disrupt Electricity
Suppose these 3m households that have solar purchase an EV with a 75kW battery, a V2G adapter and also upgrade their outdated solar system with the latest and with increased capacity.
- Households now have a combined battery capacity of > 75GW (i.e. a capacity of more than the whole of the NEM for 4 to 5 hours)
- Incentive to upgrade their rooftop solar capacity. Many may choose to upgrade their roof solar from 2 to 5 kW of panels to 20kW. 20kW x 3m households = 60GW capacity
- If the vehicle market grew to 25% of EV vehicles with V2G capability, battery storage = 5m x75 = 375GW. Even if only 10% of this is utilised thats a lot of battery storage.