ARK Invest tells about their estimation for the impact of AI economic improvement in knowledge workers in this FYI podcast about their Zoom valuation. The panelists discuss Zoom valuation and the impact on AI into the knowledge worker virtual collaboration environment. They conclude that AI will add about $50,000 to the productivity to a knowledge worker by 2030, lifting productivity by 140%. AI in other areas such as robotaxis or human physical workers, as envisaged by Tesla, is another area where huge disruptions are forecast to occur.
Lower Cost of AI Training by 65%
- The cost decline in compute and software development has been 65% year on year since 2015 to 2020
- Improvemebnt in software with AI
- Fall in 60% per year
- In large models such as GPT3, the training cost for a moderate sized decent model is about $5m. It is now peforming above human expertise. The larger the model the more By 2030, they expect that to be $500 only.
- Knowledge workers during covid used remote access, and remote went from 8% pre covid to over 45% in 2020, and reduced down to 41% in 2021. AI is a key part of improving that remote access and Zoom would improve int
- AI will be more accessible – will get much m
AI Economic Improvement increases productivity by 140%
- Humans combined with the appropriate AI will lead to much improvded productively
- The value of the knowledge of human plus AI will increase about 15% per year. The increase in base wage growth would be about 2.6%
- Therefore a knowledge worker today who makes between $25,000 and $30,000 (global average) would make $36,000 in wages by 2030
- However the value of that worker + AI will be $86,000 on a worker basis
- They estimate $50,000 of this value comes from AI. i.e 140% improvement in productivity per knowledge worker.
How Will Productivity Show Up?
- AI will increase the value of tools
- All knowledge workers can become more productive, with collaboration tools. ARK Invest say Zoom is part of this space and with AI then the video conference takes notes, schedules next meeting, creates task. etc.