The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), a group of 13 countries control 30% of the world’s oil reserves, and OPEC Countries Anti-Climate Change behaviour are on full view at COP28. USA, Russia, Canada and China are non-OPEC oil producers but equally are not willing to reduce their oil sector economy. The Guardian reported that these nations were particularly against any mention of the word “phase out”, rather than “phase down”.

Dominance of OPEC in Global Oil

• Total oil globally is about 100 mbpd from oil, biofuel and distillate from gas.
• Opec is about 28.7 mbpd or about 30% of global
• The current top 5 oil producers within OPEC who produce about 75% or 28.31 mbpd:
  • Saudi Arabia: 10.46 – 36.9% share of OPEC production
  • Iraq: 4.81 – 16.9% share
  • United Arab Emirates: 4.18 – 14.8% share
  • Iran: 3.70 – 13.0% share
  • Kuwait: 2.92 – 10.2% share

Share by Company

• Aramco is dominant with 13.5 mbpd
• Rosnet of Russia ~ 3.8
• Exxon ~2.4
• BP, Shell ~1.5

OPEC Countries Anti-Climate Change Oppose End to Oil Use

• Economic Dependence:
  Oil revenues play a crucial role in the economies of many OPEC countries. The abundance of oil resources has allowed them to generate substantial income, which in turn contributes to their GDP per person and overall economic stability. A rapid decline in oil demand will have severe economic consequences for these countries, leading to unemployment, inflation, and social unrest. 
• Export Revenue:
  OPEC countries heavily rely on oil exports to generate foreign exchange earnings. These export dollars are vital for financing imports, infrastructure development, and other national projects. And financing wars.
• Investment in Oil Infrastructure:
  OPEC countries have made significant investments in oil exploration, production, and refining infrastructure. These investments represent a substantial commitment of resources and provide employment opportunities for their citizens. They do not want to have stranded assets.
• Uncertainty in Renewable Energy Transition:
  OPEC countries don’t want to abandon their oil-based economies until renewable technologies become more advanced and economically viable.
• Geopolitical Influence:
  OPEC countries, particularly those with large oil reserves, hold significant geopolitical influence. By controlling the production and distribution of oil, they can exert leverage and negotiate favorable terms with other nations

Will Cop28 Drive “Phase Out” Or “Phase Down”

Continuing to burn rocks  while the earths climate is rising and will exceed 1.5Co is a serious environmental concern. Like the tobacco companies who ignored the end of life activity. The transition to 100% renewable energy will have winners and losers, but the modelling is clear that a 100% RE environment will decrease costs, increase employment and release billions from energy poverty (See 100% RE). OPEC is pushing the message that it is important to consider the economic and social impacts of a rapid transition away from fossil fuels. They argue Instead of simply calling for an immediate end to oil use, it is more realistic to focus on developing sustainable alternatives and promoting gradual transitions that are beneficial to all stakeholders.

As they would. 

Conclusion

OPEC countries, with their substantial oil production capacities, play a significant role in the global energy landscape. Their motivations for not wanting to stop burning oil are rooted in economic dependence, export revenue, infrastructure investments, uncertainty in renewable energy transition, and geopolitical influence. However, the urgent need to address climate change necessitates a shift towards cleaner and more sustainable energy sources. As the world continues to grapple with the challenges posed by climate change, finding a balance between economic stability and environmental sustainability will be crucial.

OPEC Countries Plus Other Oil Producers 

Note: Including Russia in the table is a complex issue due to its current political and economic situation. The information provided is based on available data and may need to be revised as the situation evolves.

Non-Opec Oil Producers

The U.S. has been the world’s biggest oil producer since 2018 and continued its dominance in 2022 by producing close to 18 million barrels per day (B/D). This accounted for nearly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply. Almost 3/4’s is in five states: Texas, New Mexico, North Dakota, Alaska, and Colorado.

Growth Over 30 Years

Will the growth of fossil fuels and oil start to decline?

Decline Predicted

RMI have a whole series predicting decline https://rmi.org/peaking-the-series/ It is not if. It is how fast? How far?

Sources:

• OPEC Secretariat: https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/
• Freedom House: https://freedomhouse.org/
• International Monetary Fund: https://www.imf.org/en/Home
• World Bank: https://data.worldbank.org/
• International Trade Centre: https://www.trademap.org/
• U.S. Energy Information Administration: https://www.eia.gov/
• Bureau of Economic Analysis: https://www.bea.gov/
• BP Statistical Review of World Energy: https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html
• Emissions per capita https://ingcon.me/blog/viewtopic.php?id=236fad-eu-co2-emissions-per-capita
• The Guardian https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/dec/08/opec-rails-against-fossil-fuel-phase-out-at-cop28-in-leaked-letters
• OPEC website: https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/publications/338.htm
• U.S. Energy Information Administration – crude oil production data: https://www.eia.gov/international/
• Statista – OPEC crude oil production by country: https://www.statista.com/statistics/265205/oil-production-in-opec-countries-in-barrels-per-day/