Global car sales were expected to grow to around 66 million automobiles in 2021, up from an estimated 63.8 million units in 2020. The sector experienced a downward trend on the back of a slowing global economy and the advent of the coronavirus pandemic in all key economies. The data provided below is from 2020, as many car manufacturers wont release their 2021 data until Feb 2022.

The latest result from Tesla who increased electric car production from 0.45m to just under a million and who have 2 more factories to come online in 2022, and the rapid expansion of over 240 electric vehicle manufacturers in China will have a major impact on existing car manufacturers. The question remains – if Tesla produces 4 million sales per year in 2025, and SAIC changes to EV, who survives a 30% reduction in revenue?

Electric Car Sales

To understand the change in the car industry, November 2021, over 721,000 EV new passenger plug-in electric cars were registered during the month, which is 72% more than a year ago and a new monthly high. (According to EV-Volumes data) and market share of battery EVs increased to 11.5% of total sales (518,000) or about 6m per year. Total car sales have been between 70 and 80 million per year. Hybid vehicles are slowing.

Global Car Sales Data

The following table has been constructed from a variety of sources (Organisation Internationale des Constructeurs d’Automobiles), Statista, Companies Market Cap, Yahoo Finance, Y Charts

Group	Sales	Rev $B	EBITDA $B	3Cap (B)	Debt $B	Invest (3yr)	PE	Op Margin %
Toyota	9,529,000	249.4	6.1	258	182	99.3	9.4	8.08
Volkswagen	9,306,000	254.1	51.0	130	227	497	7.0	6.38
Stellantis	6,915,000	98.8	16.4	61	76	35	7.8	-1.92
GM	6,828,000	122.5	27.0	88	110	77	8.1	7.43
Hyundai-Kia	6,406,000	88.1	12.3	28	91	209	4.4	5.68
SAIC Motor	5,601,000	106	0.05	37	163	91	22.5
Honda	4,399,000	121.8	1.8	49	112	198	6.0	5.01
Ford	4,187,000	127	16.0	87	145	21.7	12.4	7.17
Daimler AG	2,841,000	175.9	16.7	83	169	20.0	6.3	11.19
Suzuki	2,448,000		4.0	19	6.6	35	11.8
BMW Group	2,325,000	112.8	22.0	67	113		4.6	10.0
Geely	1,321,000	14	6.9	27	6		33.7
Mazda	1,244,000	31	2.1	6	15		11.3
Great Wall	1,116,000	62	8.9	56			27.4
Subaru	885,000	34		14	0		11.6
Tata	835,000	102	0.2	25	10		-34.0
Tesla	980,000	54	9.6 5 (Q1/22)	1,200	0.1	11	88.0	19.2
Ferrari	9,200	4.86	0.01		4		48.0	24.4
Aston Martin	3,400	0.6		2			-4.6
McLaren	2,900	0.78		1
BYD	426,000	24		123	49		35.0
Rivian	920(2021) 10,000(2022)	0	0.0	90	0.18	4.6
Lucid	300(2021) 12,000(2022)	0		68	0.216		N/A

The following table has been constructed from a variety of sources (Organisation Internationale des Constructeurs d’Automobiles), Statista, and Companies Market Cap. The data is EOEI - as the sources of data varies.
There are a large number of other car manufacturers. E.g. There are over 240 EV companies in China alone making EV cars. Some of the new entrants (Rivian, Lucid) have high market cap but don’t yet have any major sales. Others have production and low market cap.
Some of debt is vehicle lease and inventory.

USA Vehicle Sales 2021

For a breakdown of 44 USA vehicle sales by brand, check out this article in Forbes. Top selling brand was Toyota with 2m sales, followed by Ford 1.8, GM 1.4, Honda 1.3, Nissan 0.9. Tesla had got to 13th on the top sellers with 352k total, up 71% from 2020 to 2021. With Gigafactory coming on line, it would be entirely likely to be number 1 by 2024.

Tesla Forecast Car Sales Data

The forecast from James Stephenson (Twitter) suggests that in 3 years, Tesla will be the biggest in revenue and margin of all car companies. In 2021, Tesla had more net income (6.6B) than Ford (4.5B). While Ford sold more than 4 times the number of vehicles, Tesla delivered 50% more operating profit on a much smaller operation. Expect that change to accelerate in 2023.

Global Car Production by Country

Much of the media is based around the USA, but China is 30%, EU about 11% and USA 11%. Just 10 countries account for about 80% of all cars.

Rank	Country	Cars	Commercial	Total	%
1	China	19,994,081	5,231,161	25,225,242	32%
2	USA	1,926,795	6,895,604	8,822,399	11%
3	Japan	6,960,025	1,107,532	8,067,557	10%
4	Germany	3,515,372	227,082	3,742,454	5%
5	South Korea	3,211,706	295,068	3,506,774	5%
6	India	2,851,268	543,178	3,394,446	4%
7	Mexico	967,479	2,209,121	3,176,600	4%
8	Spain	1,800,664	467,521	2,268,185	3%
9	Brazil	1,608,870	405,185	2,014,055	3%
10	Russia	1,260,517	174,818	1,435,335	2%
11	Thailand	537,633	889,441	1,427,074	2%
12	Canada	327,681	1,048,942	1,376,623	2%
13	France	927,718	388,653	1,316,371	2%
14	Turkey	855,043	442,835	1,297,878	2%
15	Czech Republic	1,152,901	6,250	1,159,151	1%
16	United Kingdom	920,928	66,116	987,044	1%
17	Slovakia	985,000		985,000	1%
18	Iran	826,210	54,787	880,997	1%
19	Italy	451,826	325,339	777,165	1%
20	Indonesia	551,400	139,886	691,286	1%
21	Malaysia	457,755	27,431	485,186	1%
22	Poland	278,900	172,482	451,382	1%
23	South Africa	238,216	209,002	447,218	1%
24	Romania	438,107		438,107	1%
25	Hungary	406,497		406,497	1%
26	Uzbekistan	280,080		280,080	0%
27	Belgium	237,057	30,403	267,460	0%
28	Portugal	211,281	52,955	264,236	0%
29	Argentina	93,001	164,186	257,187	0%
30	Morocco	221,299	27,131	248,430	0%
31	Taiwan	180,967	64,648	245,615	0%
32	Slovenia	141,714		141,714	0%
33	Austria	104,544		104,544	0%
34	Finland	86,270		86,270	0%
35	Kazakhstan	64,790	10,041	74,831	0%
36	Egypt	23,754		23,754	0%
37	Serbia	23,272	103	23,375	0%
38	Ukraine	4,202	750	4,952	0%
	Others	709,633	109,475	819,108	1%
	Total Globally	55,834,456	21,787,126	77,621,582	100%
	Total Top 10	44,096,777	17,556,270	61,653,047	79%
	Top Top 20	51,633,117	20,918,519	72,551,636	93%
	Europe	10,533,352	1,731,404	12,264,756	16%

Car Production

The Best Selling Cars Globally

Every country has their favourite car. Check out the graphic below and their data from Visual Capitalist for 2019.

Toyota has the best-selling vehicle in 41 countries of the 104 countries tallied. The Hilux was the best seller in 16 countries, but trucks such as the Ford Ranger has joined that list of trucks being the top in 47 of the 104 countries listed.

Rising Car Companies

Do not disregard up and coming car manufacturers. They may not have the brand, but they are nimble and not bogged down in group think

Geely

Geely has a number of brands. In the USA, the group is represented by Volvo and Polestar, but it has a brand called Zeekr where in 2021 it produced just Geely intends to sell 1.65 million vehicles in 2022 (24% more than in 2021), excluding Volvo and Polestar, of which 100,000 are to be EV, and also to produce Zeekr for Waymo autonomous vehicles.

Vinfast

The Vietnamese company from Haiphong will be 100% by the end of 2022. Started in 2017, and designs by Pininfarina, it only sold about 50,000 in Vietnam but plans to sell in Europe and USA.

EV Vehicles for Cars and Pickups

Check out the latest article dealing with electric pickup vehicle manufacturers here and trucks here.

How Soon Will Manufacturers Move to EV

These are the plans for existing manufacturers in Nov 2021, but these change. Honda for example in 2020 said they would not move on EV for a decade. Six months later they revised their plans. Here is an Australian perspective in Nov 2021 by the Australian ABC

Company	2021 Plan	Notes about their plans, which do change
Audi	2026 New models	build their current gas, diesel, and hybrid models until the early 2030s.
Volvo	2025 50%	All EV by 2030
Ford	2025 40%	Of global sales, and within EU will be 100%
Nissan	early 2030s	All new cars in Japan China and USA
VW	All by 2035	Shortly after that in US and China
GM	All by 2035
Honda	2040	Hydrogen, hybrid. Only recently stated a change
Hyundai	2040	Revised, all R&D on ICE has stopped.
Tesla	2012	With current production of 1m, and 20m by 2030

Manufacturers and Models

Group	Vehicle Brands
Toyota Motor	Daihatstu, Lexus, Toyota
Volkswagen	Audi, Bentley, Bugatti, Lamborghini, Porsche, RUF, Seat, Skoda, Volkswagen
Stellantis	Alpine, Avtovaz, Abarth, Alfa Romeo, Chrysler, Citroen, Dodge, DS, Fiat, Infiniti Jeep, Lada, Lancia, Maserati, Nissan, Opel, Peugeot, Ram, Renault, Samsung, Vauxhall, Venusai
GM	Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC
Hyundai-Kia	Genesis, Hyundai, Kia
SAIC Motor	Maxus, MG, Roewe, Yuejin
Honda Motor	Acura, Honda
Ford	Ford, Lincoln
Daimler AG	Mercedes-Benz, Mercedes-AMG, Smart
Suzuki	Suzuki
BMW Group	BMW, Mini, Rolls Royce
Geely	Geely, Lotus, Lynk&Co, Polestar, Volvo
Mazda	Mazda
Great Wall Motors	Great Wall, Haval, Ora, Tank, Wey
Subaru	Subaru
Tata	Jaguar, Land Rover, Range Rover, Tata
Tesla (2021)	Projected to 100B in 2022, 150 in 2023, and $300B by 2025
Ferrari	Ferrari
Aston Martin	Aston Martin
McLaren	McLaren
BYD
Rivian
Lucid

With the consolidation of the automotive market, large manufacturers acquire smaller models Sometimes historic brands are kept to enable niche market sales.